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A mere two months ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while Unai Emery scolded him for not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause for the team's broader struggles.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

This weekend, though, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. As Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, Emery ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Legitimate Hopefuls?

That’s a particularly tough proposition to address. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, while the positive results have stacked up.

Per Opta, on just two occasions have Villa posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club who have just won ten consecutive victories, they look curiously susceptible – yet right now the margins are going in their favour.

The Winning Formula

Their recent policy looks like to trade blows with rivals and wait for their talisman to rescue them with two crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired in London, and again versus Manchester United.

Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, arced right inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Can It Last?

Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition had more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.

A reversion to average could be the most significant challenge they will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing the football into the top corner indefinitely.

Potential for Growth

Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet find their top level.

• The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
• Jadon Sancho could transform into the force he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, bolstering a periodically leaky defence.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder now would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential Three Lions star.

The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When Rogers faced the home supporters when the game ended conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.